Did Mr. Minch foresee the future?

[erdnasephile]

Max Maven: "For various technological reasons, there has been a publishing boom in the past 15 years that is unprecedented. assuming that there are more good quality books, can the market really support a larger number being produced each year?"

Stephen Minch: "For the past 12 years I have had a recurring conversation with other magic publishers, in which we predict the imminent appearance of a saturation point, but like the stock market it just keeps climbing, and continues to fool us all. That isn't to say that the average magician's magic dollar isn't more carefully spent these days, but a good quality book will always sell."

(From: "Stephen Minch: The Man Behind the Words" in Genii, March, 1997, pg 28)

So, 20 years down the road...

1. Have we hit that "saturation point" or can the market support more and more books?
2. If not, when do you predict the saturation point will be reached?
3. Are you more careful when spending your magic dollars these days?
4. Do quality books always still sell? Do they still justify the initial capital outlay that it takes to print them?

I have been thinking of answers to each of these, but I'm curious what ya'll think.

[PickaCard]

I have shelves of books that I have only skimmed through. I have a list of "must learn" effects that I have yet to turn my attention to. I have boxes filled with packet tricks, and quite a few great ones. I have enough DVDs to watch magic 24 hours a day for many weeks and not look at the same DVD twice.

Have we hit a saturation point? Yes and no. As a hobbyist, I will always be interested in another "great" book or trick. However those "great" items are few and far between. There is a sameness creeping in. Sure there is a new spin on things but the amount of poor magic released every week is higher than ever.

I strongly believe the market survives on the hunger of hobbyist for more, as the "professionals" that I know remind me that we all have enough great material to last more than a lifetime.

I remember Darwin writing a very insightful essay called The Next Book Syndrome (at least I believe that is the name). I have recently tried to adopt that thinking which essentially states that the magic books on my bookshelf are the ones deserving of my attention and study. Not the next book that I dream about.

Now if Richard could only release Mr. Jennings Takes it Easy...

[performer]

I think bad magicians have reached saturation point but perhaps that is another matter for another time. However, with regard to books I think there will always be a demand for quality books on magic. I don't see the demand for that dropping any time soon.

[Anthony Vinson]

Perhaps it isn’t so much a matter of product as it is of market. The (now) constant and (mostly) generational debate of books versus videos serves as an example. Videos are cheaper to produce and generate far larger profit margins than books. (I base these assertions on casual study and anecdotal evidence rather than deep research, but have no doubt they would stand.) Which is more desirable: A slickly produced video instantly downloadable and imminently disposable for $10.00, or a book that will require an investment of not only money, but also time and attention? For many of the latter Gen-Xers, most Millennials, and the bulk of whatever the current generation is being called, the answer would seem to be the download.

I am still a sucker for a good book by an author and/or a performer whose skill and thinking I admire. Harry Lorayane, John Bannon, Simon Aronson, for instance. Also those books written and/or produced by those whose reputations we can count on for excellent products and service, Stephen Minch and Richard Kaufman, for example.

Most of my magic monies last year went to the purchase of books and cards. I also copped a couple of videos during L&L’s deep discount sales, but in truth I rarely watch a video more than once or twice. (There are, of course exceptions, Max Maven’s Multiplicity and Malone Meets Marlo being examples.)

I often jump over to one of the big magic online sellers just to see what’s trending, and what’s trending are rarely books. Videos and one-off tricks, usually instantly downloadable, are king. Recently on the Penguin site two big sellers were Bill Goldman’s Monkey in the Middle and Dan Harlan’s Starcle. (Both of those are at least 25 years old and both are still in my repertoire from that far back, but hey, I’m old.) Those sites also seem to sell great gobs of highly priced decks of cards - $10.00 and up a deck?!

I think the market for solidly written, professionally produced books is in fine shape for the immediate future. Another twenty years on? Not so sure. As more and more of us Baby Boomers wander off into the cosmos and return to the stars, the market will eventually shrink to the point that it is no longer profitable. Until then, my pre-order for Mister Jenning’s Takes it Easy is a certainty!

[erdnasephile]

Most of my money has gone to books as well, but also (for the first time) substantially towards electronic versions of magazines (the MAGIC and Genii files from Lybrary are so great to have). I think the last time I ordered a one-off trick was Josh Jay's "Out of Sight." (which I cannot do). I did splurge on a very good Penguin streaming lecture. The rest was spent on cups (my wallet regrets my current quest to master the Vernon routine).

The comments on the economics of videos vs. books are well taken. I find this ironic since one of the big reasons I got started on books was the value question: "Look, you can have one trick for $10.00, but this Harry Lorayne book has 15 tricks for $10.00. Which do you want?" To my 7-year-old self with limited funds, the choice was obvious.

All that said, the apparent sales success for the Vanni Bossi book is heartening. I agree 100% that it's mostly hobbyists with cash (and somewhat less taste) that keep the market humming (and is also responsible for a lot of the recycled dreck that's out there).

Your answer for the saturation point is pretty much what I concluded. Barring an apocalyptic future where zombies take over and electricity is scarce, I suspect we are going to be the last generation of magicians who primarily learned from books. Once we are gone, perhaps the balance will finally tip. Then again, it's hard to bet against an information distribution system that has survived millennia.

PS: The video set that I like to watch over and over is Johnny Thompson's. I learn something new every time. If I could afford the time away, I'd be on a plane to the Close/Thompson session absolutely. Learning the cups from him would be the dream of a lifetime.

PPS: Here's yet another vote for "Mr. Jennings takes it Easy"!

[performer]

I just don't like e-books or video instruction. They are so bloody inconvenient for one thing. I don't understand all this awful computer nonsense and utterly refuse to carry some daft device on me so I can read some freak of nature which does my eyes in. And of course the odds are I would probably lose the bloody thing along with all the e-books contained therein anyway.

And how the hell can I carry a video player around with me? I do have DVDs (and I ordered that daft DVD about failed magicians working in Vegas and the damn thing doesn't work so I have to send the bloody thing back) but I rarely watch them more than once even if I am on rare occasions entranced by the performer.

Books I can read anywhere and everywhere. In the park, on the subway, in a restaurant. You just can't do that with DVDs or videos. And who the hell wants to keep rewinding to go over a move? Besides most of the performers are so awful that it discourages you from studying the damn trick in the first place. With a book you have no idea how awful the author is and you are far more willing to accept the material and benefit from it.

I do know that in the mainstream publishing business around 25% of works are made into e-books but usually after they are already made into real print. An author would be missing out considerably if he stuck to e-books only.

I learned EVERYTHING I know from books. No magician ever taught me anything. No. Books are here to stay.

[erdnasephile]

...And how the hell can I carry a video player around with me?...

Perhaps an iPad?

...I learned EVERYTHING I know from books. No magician ever taught me anything...

I overwhelmingly favor books as well for the reasons you cited; however, if one learns from a magician's book, isn't that magician in effect teaching the reader?

For example, if I wanted to be taught by you to use the Svengali deck, I would certainly begin with your excellent book on the subject.

[lybrary]

I do know that in the mainstream publishing business around 25% of works are made into e-books but usually after they are already made into real print. An author would be missing out considerably if he stuck to e-books only.

This is not true. Almost 100% of new titles are made available as ebooks in the mainstream publishing world. Back lists are also being converted to ebooks constantly. However, where your 25% probably stems from is that roughly 20-25% of sold copies are digital copies. So yes, printed books still dominate in most areas in terms of sales, but I believe in about another 15 years more than 50% of copies sold will be digital copies.

[Richard Kaufman]

Speaking of zombies, I am going to watch "Train to Busan" this evening.

[performer]

Erdnasephile, old chap. I haven't the slightest idea what an I pad is and neither do I care. However, I may possibly have seen one of those awful contraptions and they look perfectly dreadful. Bloody big monstrosities. I am liable to leave it behind on the subway and lose about three million other books contained inside the horrible thing. No thanks. Furthermore watching those things in public places like restaurants and suchlike make an awful din and I cannot possibly approve. And if I have to wear bloody earphones to listen to it I am liable to throw the thing in the bloody river.

Yes. A magician is indeed teaching you via a book but at least I can't see the bastard in person and see how awful he really is. As you well know I was referring to the fact that no magician has ever taught me a thing in person. I wouldn't have the patience anyway. I suppose I may have stolen the odd thing in person over the years but alas I doubt it since I rarely see anything worth stealing. No. Virtually everything I have ever learned has been from BOOKS. Oh, and of course my immense personal experience. And of course my own genius in matters magical.

I think the only thing in magic that books did not really cover to any extent was on how to manipulate the PEOPLE. Far more important than manipulating the cards, coins etc; Alas I had to learn that by myself.

And yes indeed. To learn the Svengali deck I must reluctantly concede with all due modesty and humility my most wondrous book really is the greatest work ever written on the subject. Far better than some daft DVD (of which I have seen a few) where you can see the moves done badly and with some awful long winded routine. Truly I must most modestly say that I am truly in awe of my own magnificence.

[performer]

I do know that in the mainstream publishing business around 25% of works are made into e-books but usually after they are already made into real print. An author would be missing out considerably if he stuck to e-books only.

This is not true. Almost 100% of new titles are made available as ebooks in the mainstream publishing world. Back lists are also being converted to ebooks constantly. However, where your 25% probably stems from is that roughly 20-25% of sold copies are digital copies. So yes, printed books still dominate in most areas in terms of sales, but I believe in about another 15 years more than 50% of copies sold will be digital copies.

50%? Oh, what a horrible thought! I feel quite faint.........Still I am delighted that you are doing well with it. I have always liked doing business with you.

You are probably right about the 25%. I read it in a book on publishing but I probably read it wrong. However, at least I read it in a real book!
Mind you, the ironic thing is that I have sold my soul and have a whole bunch of e-books I have written on that awful Kindle thing. I do get small cheques every month though.

I suspect no magic book publisher gets really rich though.

Oh, that reminds me. In actual fact ONE magic book publisher DID get rich! Or at least he told me he did. And in his dying days he gave me the secret of how he did it. I promised him I would take it to MY grave! The reason he gave it to me was because I once gave him a tarot reading years ago for which he was suitably grateful and he said he never forgot it. It is indeed a wonderful secret that I doubt I will be able to anything with since I do not have book publishing expertise.

However, I will give you all a clue. I am delighted to say it has nothing to do with e-books!

[Joe Mckay]

Annemann had a cunning way to make extra money from his magic books. He would advertise them in the back pages of adult magazines promising "secrets" and "powerful techniques" to achieve miracles and to impress people.

I forget the exact language - but the impression was given that the "secrets" Annemann had for sale could help you get laid.

[performer]

Annemann had a cunning way to make extra money from his magic books. He would advertise them in the back pages of adult magazines promising "secrets" and "powerful techniques" to achieve miracles and to impress people.

I forget the exact language - but the impression was given that the "secrets" Annemann had for sale could help you get laid.

Yes. I know about that. Quite disgraceful.

[chetday]

My painfully obvious theory on the topic at hand is that reading preferences have much to do with age.

As a little background: I've been working part-time on the Internet with computers since 1985 and full-time since 1999, so one would think that after 30+ years as a computer nerd I'd be used to reading on a screen.

Well, yes, I'm used to it, but I hate it as much today as I did in 1985 when I bought my first computer. For this old fart, there's something physically -- as well as mentally and emotionally -- pleasing about reading from a printed page that I don't get from reading an ebook or watching a dvd on a monitor or TV set.

You see, I was a lonely kid who survived constant moving from one state to another during my childhood and teenage years because of books. Books, books, and more books. Fiction, non-fiction, fantasy, sci-fi, and magic... always every magic book I could find at a library or used book store. I devoured them all with an enthusiasm that hasn't waned to this day. I loved the feel of books and paper; I loved the way the printed word challenged my brain; I loved the ability to annotate in the margins with a sharp No. 3 pencil. I loved all the tangible and intangible sensory jolts that are inherent in physically printed media.

And, try as I might, I've never been able to duplicate the pleasures with dvds and ebooks that I've always experienced with printed media. God knows, I've tried because life would be a lot less cluttered with all my books on a memory stick that I could plug into a laptop, but the reading thrill just isn't there when viewing words on a screen... and I suspect that's also true for other folks who are enjoying their stupidly called "golden years" (the only thing golden that I've found about being 69 years old is the $800+ auric crowns on top of my deteriorating back molars).

So I'll keep buying and reading physical books as my main source of pleasure and magical instruction, but I think printed media will eventually join audio and video tapes in the dumpsters and landfills.

Yeah, I think quality magic books will continue to sell until someone lowers into the ground or slams the door on the crematorium my generation and maybe the generation after me. But at some point (maybe as few as ten but no more than forty years from now), I suspect those of you left around will be reading and viewing in a predominantly digital world.

[Andres Reynoso]

I'm 33, enjoy reading since child and I'm systems programmer.
I use a lot the computer but continue prefering printed books. Last year I purchased a Kindle and have just read the instructions (as e-book of course) I haven't yet used it really.
My shelves are filled with a lot of books waiting to be readed. Not just magic, any kind of themes.
Regarding magic I prefer books over video. I have a print subscription to Genii bacause I prefer touching and feeling the magazine. I love quality books like that produced by Stephen Minch and Richard Kaufman.
The joy that produce touching, smelling and reading a physical book can't be beaten by an e-book. I can read e-books if necesary but prefer printed books and I'm optimistic about their permanence.
Some months ago I visited Toronto and found at a bookstore "reading socks" warm socks intended for that reading weekends, what a lovely idea, to spend a weekend reading with warm clothes in a cold place
I saw too an advertisement of a David Ben show, what a shame I wasn't that days.

[erdnasephile]

So, in terms of my 3rd question:

Does the condition of the current marketplace make you more careful with your magic dollars?

Or is the opposite true: are you spending a lot more freely on magic than you did 20 years ago?

And why?

[Andres Reynoso]

So, in terms of my 3rd question:

Does the condition of the current marketplace make you more careful with your magic dollars?

Or is the opposite true: are you spending a lot more freely on magic than you did 20 years ago?

And why?

20 years ago I only had access to Patrick Page (uncredited) and Bob Longe books sold in spanish for general public. Ultimately, definitely I have spend more in magic bacause:
- Now I have a job
- I learned english and discovered a world of magic books that aren't in the general market
- Yes, maybe some of the next book syndrome
BUT, nowadays I'm selecting more the magic I purchase. I prefer books over tricks, and I consider more carefully the books I purchase. Why?
- As was stated in a post on this thread: I consider I have enough material for all my life on the books I have on my shelves.
- As lifetime Genii subscriptor I have magic literature in monthly basis for a big while (I hope that ).
A kind of saturation?
- Another new factor, currency exchange between mexican peso and dollar has become hefty. I remember erdnasephile has mentioned that fact with sterling pound affecting him.

[Joe Mckay]

There seems to be be less magic books for sale now - so I definitely grab whatever catches my eye.

Ultimately I don't care about the price. Magic is my main passion - and there is so little that I really want, that price will doesn't put me off.

I did have worries for the magic industry a few years ago. But truth be told - the past few years have been very good as far as magic books are concerned. So I hope that continues. And I hope the general increase in the price of magic books means there will be more emphasis on trying to write magic books that are special one-off projects. That seems to be the trend.

Since there are not a lot of new books around - I do find myself picking up ebooks. I am not a huge fan of reading on a screen. But in some ways I prefer it when it comes to chopping through a large bunch of material in search for what will probably be only one or two tricks that will really appeal to me. Stuff like - spending a few hours working through Pabular, Pentagram or The New Pentagram on my computer - and making a note of the few tricks that really appeal and then simply printing them off.

It works out cheaper, the gratification is instant and I like not having lots of space taken up on my shelf by books that I won't want to re-read.

I used to re-read books all the time. But I am experienced enough now that I can find what I need with only a single read through these days. Also - with ebooks - you often have access to material you would struggle tom find elsewhere. And with the heavy books - you often end up paying the same price for the ebook as you would have paid just for the postage alone when it comes to the physical products.

Also - with search technology - it is often quite easy for me to dig out stuff from an ebook that I suddenly may want to look up again.

Ebooks are definitely a useful part of the mix for me now. If I am looking for a quick hit of magic - I will pick up some ebooks. The quality is very variable with ebooks. But that is part of the fun of having an infinite supply of products to choose from. You just have to dig harder to find something that you will really enjoy.

[erdnasephile]

I have to say, Mr. Reynoso: I really respect you for learning English in order to expand the range of magic you can explore--I think that's great! One day, I hope to learn Spanish for the same reason. Yes--the conversion rate is why I'm waiting for the 3rd Walton book to get over here before I buy.

I can't decide whether I'm more careful with my magic money or not. In the old days, I had less of it, and I had to drive to the magic shop to buy something. In addition, since there were only one or two big books published per year, I really had to think about what I truly wanted.

OTOH, with the immediate gratification I can get today with instant downloads and buying from the comfort of my easy chair, it's so easy to just burn through cash. However, I think what stops me is that, like Mr. McKay, it's really easy now-a-days for me to tell right away what I'm going to like and perform. (I can really only think of a few things I've bought over the last couple years that I've very much regretted--a download that was junk , and a book I should have trusted my instincts about.).

I do think that in some quarters, the current magic inflation is more than I like to see. Value is certainly in the eye of the spender, but I shudder a bit when I see three figure paperbacks and coin gaffs that cost a day's pay.

Speaking of value, the type of magic book I'd like to see more of are the anthologies. I grew up on the Card Cavalcade series, and those types of compilations are always so much fun to read because of the variety of styles and content. Plus, I think you sometimes get some really strong material from lesser known creators who don't have enough material for a book of their own.

[Joe Mckay]

Compilations are great fun. That is what makes Semi-Automatic Card Tricks my favourite series of card books.

[Tom Gilbert]

Now when you see an ad or a "trailer" for something, it's easier and better to go back and learn the original. The latest from the frozen bird,
a rip of Rene Levand's Breadcrumb and Cup effect.

[Terry]

Chetday, you and I had similar life experiences.

My dad worked for IBM and we moved every 5 years.

Started as Systems Operator on IBM Sys34 mainframe in 1983, moved into application development and now Manager of Security Operations for Commonwealth of KY.

While I do like ebooks for subjects I don't want the physical item to occupy shelf space, I prefer sitting in my chair and having the physical book in my hands.

Re video - I buy those that don't come in book form, i.e. John Carney's Coins and Decaffeinated Cups being most recent.

[webbmaster]

I think Steve and Max are right. Steve referred to the market situation years ago as being a 'glut'. Chris from Library has mentioned in conversations with me that he 'sees' it that a specialized book, say on coins, would do better than a book on lots of props...because if someone is looking for a coin trick and finds a book offered on coins - then bingo ! And the same would go for each prop or category, if that theory is true.
While this seems to ring true, there are collectors who buy two of everything by certain authors or publishing companies. (One to read and one to save in 'mint' condition.) I don't collect in that way. I'll wear out a book if I like it.
But, I must say that many new products (dealer items too) seem to be rehashed older ideas with less than accurate credits thrown in, and almost nobody knows the sources and credits of ideas our field as well as the guys this thread started with - Steve and Max. It is easy to think an idea is new, and even after asking around, but in time many seemingly new ideas are in the older books already and forgotten. But this is not to say that there aren't new ideas and even more importantly, new presentations for our times. Oh, well. Regards, Gregg Webb