Why do people think it's okay to upload magic DVDs?

[David Alexander]

Even worse, I found one "member" on one of my forums that wasn't human at all. It was an autosubmitter that would "read" the thread and post a computer generated response that hopefully would pass for human dialog. The goal was to get as many replies on as many sites as possible with the intent of steering customers to their site by way of sig lines, user profile links and carefully phrased invitations. They say it's not technically "SPAM" because the computer generated "participation" was different than blasting a cookie cutter message to everyone.

In short, it takes this Palladium program to an even higher level. You don't even have to write any messages, it even does this for you.

Eventually we won't even have to participate at all. Computers will do all the thinking for us and tell us what it wants us to know. Scary, huh?

Come to think of it, some of the messages I see on this thread look like they might have come from such a program. Maybe we're already arguing with machines, not real people.

How do we know that's really Dave V posting?

[Jonathan Townsend]

...
How do we know that's really Dave V posting?

His AI also did a pretty convincing job of replying to a PM a few hours ago.

Anyway I'm cool with the digital and the uploaded - just not into that cross wiring stuff okay folks? :)

[Tim Ellis]

Figures for illegal downloads...

I looked at a popular P2P site and saw a column labeled "Torrent File Downloads" beside each available torrent. Presumably that is the number of downloads of that particular torrent.

Doing a search for "magic" I culled the following figures in just a couple of minutes:

Dan and Dave - Cartier - 1183

Andrew Gerard - Energy Bill - 790

Oz Pearlman - Stripper - 1052

Andy Nyman - Short Punchy and Mental - 148

Wayne Houchin - Art of Magic DVD rip - 3085

And it goes on.

Thanks David - I'm glad you understood that when I asked about illegal vs legal downloads I was referring to magic DVDs being pirated and not software updates - but your example makes it abundantly clear.

In looking at just ONE guy who's posted in just ONE forum, you can see more people have illegally downloaded those DVDs than the number of DVDs the manufacturer would have actually sold.

And that's just ONE of who knows how many uploads out there?

Someone will pipe in and say it's the manufacturer's fault for not giving the customers the DVD in the format they want, which is a download.

I don't agree. These customers don't want a download, they want a FREE DOWNLOAD.

Anyone who sells over 1000 copies of a magic DVD is doing great business. If they sell 2000 copies it's considered a "home run".

Yet many DVDs out there on torrents have been downloaded thousands and thousands of times - to say that won't hurt sales is naive. The DVDs are not downloaded by people who are not interested in magic, they are downloaded by people who have, at least a passing interest. They have an interest to choose that particular torrent and press the download button. They are potential customers who, if they saw the DVD in a store and it didn't exist online, MIGHT consider actually buying it.

The more popular torrents become, the smaller the customer base for sales of actual DVDs becomes.

Why do you think the link I posted in the intitial post at the start of this thread was deleted? Because people thought it would encourage magicians who were not aware of the torrent to go to it and download DVDs for free instead of buying them.

People on this forum don't want to give the pirates publicity because they are a threat to our industry, nut many also don't think there's any point in trying to shut down or reducate those SPECIFICALLY who pirate magic DVDS.

[Tim Ellis]

With regards to possible solutions - and this is a little off the DVD topic...

Sue-Anne and I lecture all over the world. Two years ago we were lecturing in England and I was "manning the stand" during the break when I heard a group of magicians, standing right near me, discussing how they were going to buy one set of notes, photocopy them, and split the cost between the five of them. I said "I can hear you." They just nodded to me and continued their discussion on high finances.

To counter this potential problem WITHIN our industry (I'm not talking about bored teenagers on P2P at this point) I'm doing a lecture in Taipei next month - but the lecture notes are free.

I have negotiated a lecture fee that includes the minimum number of notes I would normally sell. For that fee, I email them a pdf of notes personalised specially for that lecture. They can reproduce as many as they like and give them out to every attendee.

However, to ensure the notes are only valuable to those who attend the lecture, certain details in each trick will be left out and can be added by the attendee either on the spot with a pen, or from their memory of the lecture.

This method would also work with DVDs sold at lectures - but not for DVDs you hope to sell online or through regular magic shops.

Just throwing it out there....

[Richard Kaufman]

Very few DVDs sell 1000 copies these days--most sell between 300 and 500 copies. One reason is oversaturation in the marketplace, and the other is ILLEGAL DOWNLOADS.

Duh.

[JHostler]

The 40,000-foot view. See figure 3(!)

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/50/22/42619490.pdf

[Jonathan Townsend]

From that paper:

85. To reiterate, there are two conditions that favour the emergence of a monetary submarket where pirated products are exchanged against a monetary payment: (i) there is no known free pirated alternative or the transaction costs related to its acquisition are too high, and (ii) ...

197. This paper has not attempted to quantify digital piracy and its damaging effects. It aimed only at presenting an assessment of markets for pirated products. This has lead to a formulation of the following set of issues for consideration by policymakers and industry:

Strange times are coming

[000]

The " I want it all for free" philosophy must still turn full circle. Look at Facebook for example, which despite being valued at billions of dollars has yet to turn a nice profit. Its all gratis at the moment, Ive read that they have plans to send you 'customized' ads, based on your profile. Many users have indicated they will go elsewhere should this happen.

[David Alexander]

A recent news article talked about how YouTube, also supposedly worth a large pile of money, is costing upwards of $400 million a year to operate...and no profit in sight.

I like Steve's take on the joy of aquisition. In the early days of PCs people copied programs like crazy. It would not be unusual to know someone with hundreds of programs. That they never used them or installed them was par for the course. They got a kick out of "aquiring" them and that was the pay off.

It may be the same with the magic on bit torrents.

[mrgoat]

A recent news article talked about how YouTube, also supposedly worth a large pile of money, is costing upwards of $400 million a year to operate...and no profit in sight.

I like Steve's take on the joy of aquisition. In the early days of PCs people copied programs like crazy. It would not be unusual to know someone with hundreds of programs. That they never used them or installed them was par for the course. They got a kick out of "aquiring" them and that was the pay off.

It may be the same with the magic on bit torrents.

No profit in sight...to you!

I don't think Google bought out YT with no business plan or long term goal. They are building up DATA. And that, my friend, is where the profit will come from in the future. Google have your search history, your gmail, your youtube viewing habits and more. They then will monetise this data. Somehow. Just because they haven't shared their plan doesn't mean they don't have one. Just like Twitter.

Anyway, back to positive things we could do...how about Freemium content? Like iPhone apps etc. Where you get a scaled down, limited version of an app for free with the ability to simply upgrade to the full version...

Bear with me...

What if, (and this only works with content that is actually any good - which could be a hurdle), a 12 trick DVD was released with 11 tricks 'greyed' out and one available for free. Totally free. If you liked it, you could 'unlock' the other 11 with a payment.

Now, this doesn't need to be a physical DVD, although it could be. It could be a viral video clip, a podcast, a blog, a website, etc. Check out this new David Regal trick, for free! It gets shared about, everyone starts talking about the new Regal trick. How clever it is. How well shot the video is. How good the teaching is.

You get the free clip in return for your email address. Now, you have permission to market to these people in the future. As they are likely to be fans, or at least interested in magic, it's likely this mailing list would be very responsive.

Yes, this won't stop the other 11 tricks getting ripped and shared by the 14 year old collectors. But, it might well get Regal's work into the hands of people who haven't tried his stuff. Might lead to sales of his older stuff. Might lead to an increase of butts on seats for a lecture tour. Etc etc.

Just an idea...

[Jonathan Townsend]

Folks might enjoy Corey Doctorow's short story "Scroogled"

http://www.dailylit.com/books/scroogled

[Tim Ellis]

Mr Goat "Yes, this won't stop the other 11 tricks getting ripped and shared by the 14 year old collectors. But, it might well get Regal's work into the hands of people who haven't tried his stuff. Might lead to sales of his older stuff. Might lead to an increase of butts on seats for a lecture tour. Etc etc."


Well that certainly is a different way to market your magic.

It means that more and more people will know how at least one of David Regal's tricks is done - so it works against the "secret" nature of magic (why not just show them how good the trick is WITHOUT revealing the method? The method is grayed and they have to pay), but it does nothing to address piracy, which is the subject of this thread.

Many people don't wish to INCREASE the size of the magic market, just stop those within it pirating their DVDs.

[David Alexander]

Yeah, goatie...to me....and the analysts at Credit Suisse who've looked at the numbers. See Slate for the article at: http://www.slate.com/id/2216162/

Seems Facebook has a similar problem with costs exceeding income with no end in sight and no way to turn the service into profitability...and yet the company is supposedly worth $15 billion. Holy Bezos...hallowed be thy name.

[Jonathan Townsend]

What is the size of the magic market? Would it be everyone who's seen or heard about a TV commercial for a "magic wallet" x strap thing sold at every department store along with magic kits at wholesale clubs and K/Wall mart?

What distinguishes an item as being part of the magic market? Its presence in a magic catalog?

I get the feeling that some want to increase the size of the magic market to be as large as possible to leverage the mass media tools of teaching on TV and then selling via the TV show - as Criss Angel did just recently.

[the Larry]

The valuations of Facebook, Twitter and the like are of course purely in the imagination of those who don't remember the Internet bubble. Once these folks turn on customized ads and other potentially intrusive monetization schemes people will go somewhere else.

On the Internet customer loyalty is a ficle thing. It doesn't take much to have a mass exodus from Facebook.

If you ask me this is all driven by the greed of investors. And these companies know how to sell it to them. The numbers on paper all look fantastic. Tens of millions of users, and new users. X amount of clicks and interactions. But what is the value of this?

Say you are at a party, having a good time with your friends. Do you want to be marketed to? Do you want to be seeing ads? And if you do, would you really be responsive? The dirty little secret of Facebook advertisement is that it doesn't work because people are in socializing mode not in purchasing mode. Google ads do work because many do search there to find products and services. So they are in purchasing mode or at least a large enough fraction is. Not so on social websites.

On top of it, it is very easy to measure the success of online advertising. Companies are starting to find out how much an ad is really worth, which is much much less than what they thought it is. That is why moving advertisement from print online does not just shift revenue from print to online it will reduce total ad spend because finally it becomes clear how little all of that advertising does.

I have seen the numbers. It is not pretty when a $300 million ad business shrinks to $30 million.