Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

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Dustin Stinett
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Dustin Stinett » October 30th, 2008, 3:30 pm

What?!? I have to pay for my award?!?

So THATS how people get their honorary doctorates!

What else can I purchase from our temples of higher learning?

The fee notwithstanding, I do appreciate the kind words and Im glad someone liked it! It is, after all, how I make a living. (You can feel sorry for me; I dont mind.) I keep a Dilbert cartoon on my PC here that has him saying, I gather inaccurate data for a living. Luckily no one uses it.

We all have our crosses to bear.

In that post, I asked that someone with a greater knowledge of auctions take a look at my numbers and tell me what they thought. Well, ask and yee shall receive: I received an interesting note from an authority on auctions. He/she wishes to remain anonymous, but I can certainly vouch for their expertise. This person has graciously allowed me to post a few comments about this auction:

I did not think this sale should be considered a success as no Seller or Auction Company would go through the time and energy that it takes to put on a sale of this magnitude to only have 76% of the lots sell and of the lots that did sell, to only have 35% of the lots reach the high estimate with 48% selling under the low estimate - this in my mind is a travesty.

I believe the Seller and the Auction House missed the mark by being overly aggressive in establishing the low/high estimates and as a result missed an opportunity to sell all of their items and exceed the high dollar estimate. What do I mean? By establishing unrealistic estimates it scares bidders from jumping in and for those that do, they are starting at such a high level that the excitement wanes and the bidding does not go where it needs to go. The proper strategy is to start low and let the momentum carry the item past the high estimate.

The Seller tried to have a "retail" sale not an auction.

The benefit of an auction is to let the market set the fair market price and they tried to artificially set this price and it did not work. Case in point, I am fairly certain that the buyer [who] purchased [the] Thurston the Famous Magician Beauty the Arabian Steed Vanishes poster at the Jay Marshall sale this past summer [paid] $5,000 bringing many times the catalogs high estimate. The low estimate on the poster was $1,000. The high estimate was $2,000. Now several months later the same poster is being offered for sale with a low estimate of $8,000 and a high estimate of $12,000 resulting in no sale. It is logical that it didnt sell as the fair market value of the poster only several months ago was $5,000 what changed?

I hope this sheds some light on this sale.


Indeed it does. Thank you!

Dustin

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Ray T. Stott
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Ray T. Stott » October 30th, 2008, 3:55 pm

[size:14pt]
It is logical that it didnt sell as the fair market value of the poster only several months ago was $5,000 what changed?


:D :D Association provenance?? :D :D

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Kevin Connolly
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Kevin Connolly » October 30th, 2008, 4:14 pm

I agree if you have to high a starting price scares many collectors off. The consignor wants some protection, whereas Jay Marshall had nothing to lose. :) You may also want to consider if the last Marshall sale was in a better location/time and had better descriptions and more photos, it probably would have done much better. I know Swann should have used more photos. Even if they just post them online, it helps them, the buyer and the seller.
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Richard Kaufman » October 30th, 2008, 4:34 pm

The United States economy is in the worst situation seen since the Great Depression. Why is anyone surprised that the results of the auction weren't great? On a good day, greed sucks. On a bad day, greed pays back its owner.
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Kevin Connolly
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Kevin Connolly » October 30th, 2008, 4:55 pm

You might as well put the rest of the world's economy in there too, if not worse. That still doesn't discount the facts mentioned above. I know collectors, including myself, who still will over-pay for a great item. Good economy or bad, they are collectors first. It may not be rational, but what true collector is.
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby George Guerra » October 30th, 2008, 6:22 pm

Needless to say, it's definitely a buyer's market as some desirable items are now relatively affordable compared to just a few years ago. That's assuming that the seller is desparate for cash to let go of those precious items at this time. If not, sit on them, enjoy them, and wait for the market to return to "normal"

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Dustin Stinett » October 30th, 2008, 6:50 pm

Frankly, Im sick and tired of hearing this downturn being compared to the Great Depression by the media and others. Its irresponsible and just plain wrong. No doubt about it, the economy is bad, but its nothing compared to the Depression (25% unemployment) or even the recession of the late 1970s early 80s when the GDP dropped 3% (by comparison, this economy dropped 0.3% as reported today). Anyone else recall what double-digit inflation was like??

I sure remember it. I was forced to drop my membership to the SAM, cancel all my magazine subscriptions (magic and mainstream; I only kept Apocalypse), and my wife and I took several other steps to make ends meet. And I was in a very well-paying job at the time (fulltime at $13.79 per hour in 1980 with 100% paid medical and dental was pretty darn good)! We are no where near that bad-off right now. Things are tight, to be sure, but nothing like it was back then.

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Kevin Connolly » October 30th, 2008, 7:15 pm

I remember it well. Don't forget odd and even days for gas.

What we have now is not even close.
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Dustin Stinett » October 30th, 2008, 7:25 pm

I'd certainly prefer the Marshall-owned poster.

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Kevin Connolly » October 30th, 2008, 7:41 pm

I'll go with the one in better condition.
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Dustin Stinett » October 30th, 2008, 7:45 pm

I'd still prefer the Marshall-owned poster.

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Kevin Connolly » October 30th, 2008, 9:11 pm

Getting back to placing a high reserve or starting price, or both, on items just doesn't seem to work. I noticed someone that has been selling a nice set of magic magazines on the net, but it never sells week after week. I can understand putting a reserve on the item, but to have the opening bid start at $1,000 puts most people off. I think he do better if he started it at $50, with a reserve. This way when people see the bid reach $200 for instance, they can justify to themselves to bid $250. And so on and so on. This way the last bidder can think to himself that at least one other person wants it for $50 less than him. I think this would work better for the seller.

I hope so....This way I could sell mine. :)
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Dustin Stinett » October 30th, 2008, 9:45 pm

Look at how Dick Hatch sells the books he does on eBay: He starts them at 99! Obviously this cuts down on his placement fees. And I suspect every great once in a while he takes it in the shorts, but I'll wager that he more often than not gets a good price.

Like the writer above said, the seller was trying to have a retail sale through an auction house. And I am having a serious case of dj vu right now. It seems to me this has been said about his auctions before.

Dustin

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Kevin Connolly » October 30th, 2008, 10:28 pm

Here's some magic that might slip under the radar. The seller has some interesting material. It's not all magic, but it's worth a look. FYI: I am not involved with these items in anyway.

Interesting Magic Items Click Here <----
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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Richard Hatch » October 30th, 2008, 11:41 pm

Dustin Stinett wrote:Look at how Dick Hatch sells the books he does on eBay: He starts them at 99! Obviously this cuts down on his placement fees. And I suspect every great once in a while he takes it in the shorts, but I'll wager that he more often than not gets a good price.

I actually got the idea of the 99 cent no reserve approach from a book on how to sell your home in five days via an auction (which I then did a few years ago). The theory is that if you need change for a dollar and go into a bar and offer to auction off the dollar to the highest bidder you'll likely walk out with 99 cents if there are two potential bidders with change in the bar who are reasonably sober (you might get much more or less if they aren't!).
In theory, if there is a large enough and sufficiently well informed group involved, you should be fine. As a recent example, last week we sold both volumes of the KEEP THE WHEELS TURNING set (Carl Owen and Floyd Thayer books) on ebay for a combined price (they were sold separately) of $277.01 with 8 different bidders on each item. The same two volumes offered as a set in the recent Swann Auction with a low estimate of $400 and a high estimate of $600 sold to a single bidder for just $200 (I believe the set is still available new from the publisher... it is still listed in their online catalog, though without price information).
I am currently sticking with that approach to sell some higher end magic titles from my personal collection and am hoping that the economic downturn is not an overriding factor, but will live with the result regardless.

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby GAMOLO » October 31st, 2008, 2:28 am

I think too much is being made about this being a lack luster auction.

First, as regards Swann, remember they make over 40% on each item that is sold (i.e., 20% buyer's premium, even more on eBay & online purchases, and 20% from the sellers). So, considering that the total gavel prices realized essentially hit the mark with respect to the initial estimated figure listed....which some suggest was even priced too high for this economy....Swann did pretty well. Obviously, selling all the lots would have been even better, but presumably the sellers will simply husband them away for a better economy and at least they didn't give them away, like folks selling short now on their stocks....losing any opportunity forever to realize gains in the future.

Second, while it is true I felt there was no energy in the room, Houdini cabinet photos & Taytelbaum items certainly must have exceeded the sellers' expectations.

Third, while certainly books & lithos went for below last year's market prices as realized at Swann in 2007, the real issue is what were the sellers' true original cost? As I understand it, the bulk of the stuff was from a guy who had purchased items for his collection over the course 40 years. I overheard Carrandi say he started selling this guy stuff in the late 1960's! Presumably, he purchased books & letters & photos from Carrandi and others, the apparatus and other stuff from probably European dealers. So, for example, if one bought Houdini photos in 1968 for $20 a piece, and this week they sold for $800 a piece, does that mean the sellers' had a bad auction? Of course they all would have realized more money if they had listed for sale in 2006 & 2007, but to say they were smucks and to imply nobody made out is silly.

I don't get Dustin's point about who you purchase from. If I want a Thurston 3 sheet poster of a horse illusion (where the hell are you going to display it?) I want it at the lowest price I can get it from. It's the same poster whether it came from Marshall (who got it from someone else) or Carrandi or Molovinsky....everyone got it from someone else. It's value is determined at the moment of sale. July in KY was an eternity ago.

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Dustin Stinett » October 31st, 2008, 10:53 am

GAMOLO wrote: I don't get Dustin's point about who you purchase from.


Its about provenance or, as Ray T Scott called it, association provenance (whose post promted those comments).

If it could be proved that Houdini owned a, say, Kellar poster, wouldnt it be worth more to some collectors than the same exact poster owned by, say, me?

I personally would rather have a poster once owned by Jay Marshall than one owned by someone Ior the rest of the magic worldhas never heard of.

Thats all.

Dustin

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Brad Henderson » October 31st, 2008, 4:10 pm

And, some pieces (not posters usually) are identified through their provenance. So, buying something from "a gentleman" seems a little riskier (even though it is covered by Swann's guarantee). For example, I would much prefer buying a Houdin clock if I knew who had owned it and how it descended from Houdin's era. There are fakes out there.

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Re: Swann Magic Auction From A To Z

Postby Richard Kaufman » October 31st, 2008, 5:31 pm

There are a lot of fake Robert-Houdin clocks out there. Made from vintage materials. It requires a real expert to tell the difference.
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