Mystical thinking?
...or is there something else at work?
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-veg ... story.html
Magic v. Math at the Craps Table
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brianarudolph
- Posts: 404
- Joined: February 26th, 2012, 9:22 pm
Re: Magic v. Math at the Craps Table
It's just the whims of mathematical probability. Once in a while, you'll get some long runs. And there's nothing saying that a shooter won't experience several long runs reasonably close together. Look at those folks who manage to hit the lottery multiple times in relatively close succession. But that's all after-the-fact analysis - not one of them could tell you in advance that it was going to happen.
Except for a very. very, very, very, very few: these are people who've actually gone to the trouble to buy their own regulation casino craps table and literally practiced for years on end to throw the dice. There's usually a bit of a solid wall gap at the bottom of the inside (playing area) of a craps table before the "padded diamond rebounder" material starts. I've heard stories of how a well-practiced shooter could position the dice in their hand (you can only put one hand on the dice - the casino knows about switching all too well) and toss the dice in such a way at such a speed to hit that flat gap area, thereby having far greater control over what numbers would show - often being able to hit the exact number in the exact way they want. And while it's a legitimate skill, since you're the casino's "guest", they can still bar you from further play if they even think you might be doing this.
But if a player is regularly bouncing the dice off of the rebounder material and there's no clear rhythm/pattern in they way he shoots, then it's literally just a lucky streak. There's only a 1 in 6 change you'll hit a 7 on any roll and, since every roll is an independent event (fair dice have no memory), it's not unreasonable to expect a number of really long streaks from time to time since there's a 5 in 6 chance every roll that you won't hit a 7.
Casinos are VERY eagle-eyed about spotting dice cheaters. That's why during a craps game they will often inspect the dice and bring new dice if they suspect anything could be up.
Except for a very. very, very, very, very few: these are people who've actually gone to the trouble to buy their own regulation casino craps table and literally practiced for years on end to throw the dice. There's usually a bit of a solid wall gap at the bottom of the inside (playing area) of a craps table before the "padded diamond rebounder" material starts. I've heard stories of how a well-practiced shooter could position the dice in their hand (you can only put one hand on the dice - the casino knows about switching all too well) and toss the dice in such a way at such a speed to hit that flat gap area, thereby having far greater control over what numbers would show - often being able to hit the exact number in the exact way they want. And while it's a legitimate skill, since you're the casino's "guest", they can still bar you from further play if they even think you might be doing this.
But if a player is regularly bouncing the dice off of the rebounder material and there's no clear rhythm/pattern in they way he shoots, then it's literally just a lucky streak. There's only a 1 in 6 change you'll hit a 7 on any roll and, since every roll is an independent event (fair dice have no memory), it's not unreasonable to expect a number of really long streaks from time to time since there's a 5 in 6 chance every roll that you won't hit a 7.
Casinos are VERY eagle-eyed about spotting dice cheaters. That's why during a craps game they will often inspect the dice and bring new dice if they suspect anything could be up.