Look into the not too distant future for magazines

[Jim Maloney]

Think about the changes this will trigger inside a publisher if they sell more ebooks than books! Hold on to your seats.

This already happening. O'Reilly (publisher of a wide variety of tech books) reports that ebooks are outselling their physical books three to one.

Also of note is that they only deal in DRM free ebooks.

-Jim

[NCMarsh]

That computer manuals sell well in "e" form strikes me as unsurprising...

[Jonathan Townsend]

That computer manuals sell well in "e" form strikes me as unsurprising...

When your computer is down and you need to figure out what's going wrong... nothing like an ebook on your hard drive.

[the Larry]

Even more significant is the growth rate. In barely two years the ratio went from 1:2 (meaning one ebook for each two print books) to now 3:1 (meaning 3 ebooks to one printed book). If the trend continues then in 2 years they will sell almost no print books at all.

As I wrote before the train is much further along than most realize or want to believe.

[Jonathan Townsend]

what's the rate of growth for books (including ebooks) being sold in the first place?

[mrgoat]

From today's Wall Street Journal, "Technology Predictions Are Mostly Bunk"

Well I predict that in January Apple will announce their tablet.

Let's see how I do!

[Pete McCabe]

Where are we with the eScroll setup using a flexible the extends (unrwaps) from one or both handles? That is, IMHO, about what we would more comfortable.

If I'm understanding you correctly, Jonathan, (Probability=.20), Plastic Logic has prototypes that roll, fold, bend, etc., just like paper. User groups didn't like them.

That doesn't mean all that muchI remember a focus group a decade or so ago where a company was testing a portable music player. They wanted to know which color people preferred, black or yellow. Group after group voted for yellow. Then when they offered a free player as thanks for being in the group, everyone took a black one.

Still, Plastic Logic's tech can provide this. The drawback I think is that most users, at least of a page-size unit, will carry it in their briefcase, where foldability is of little use and flatness much prized.

[Pete McCabe]

Well I predict that in January Apple will announce their tablet.

Let's see how I do!

This is not really a technology prediction but a business prediction. If you can predict whether the screen will be LCD or e-ink, or even what size it will be, now you're talking.

[mrgoat]

Well I predict that in January Apple will announce their tablet.

Let's see how I do!

This is not really a technology prediction but a business prediction. If you can predict whether the screen will be LCD or e-ink, or even what size it will be, now you're talking.

10.6 inch

hopefully oled

running the iphone version of osx

--

that better?

:)

[Eoin O'hare]

...it will also be called "Magic Slate"


(or iSlate)

[Pete McCabe]

Much better, thanks.

[Jonathan Townsend]

There are phones that run windows compact edition and support Microsoft office and the adobe acrobat PDF reader.

Just add a roll out screen and the work is pretty much done - IMHO.

OLED - good idea :)

[Richard Kaufman]

Read this, which is in today's New York Times:
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/3 ... vices/?hpw

[mrgoat]

Read this, which is in today's New York Times:
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/3 ... vices/?hpw

want

[Ian Kendall]

Quoth JT: When your computer is down and you need to figure out what's going wrong... nothing like an ebook on your hard drive

I know very few geeks with only one computer. I've whittled my collection down to nine, not including the hulks in the attic.

Take care, Ian

[Richard Kaufman]

I've got three: a desktop and two laptops.

[Bob Cunningham]

Ditto

I have at least a dozen, 4 Macs and 8 to 10 PC's depending on what project I am slapping together.

/Bob

[Ian Kendall]

We have a community here called Freecycle, where you put up things you don't need and people come to get them for free, to save them ending up in a landfill. I've shifted a few machines that way.

If I was honest I could probably do my day to day stuff on five or six machines, but where would the fun be in that.

Ian
Great Grand Pooh Bah of Geeks.

[Bob Cunningham]

We have a community here called Freecycle, where you put up things you don't need and people come to get them for free, to save them ending up in a landfill.

What a great idea! I wish I knew about something like that in Dallas. Although, when you put anything of potential value on the side of the road it is usually gone by the next day.

[Joe Pecore]

Bob, They have Freecycles all over the country http://www.freecycle.org/group/US/Texas/

[Bob Cunningham]

Thanks!

This is great. I had never heard of this group, but it looks fantastic.

[DrDanny]

http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2009/12/do ... stroy-book

Ebooks are evil.

[Richard Kaufman]

Large corporations are evil greedy bastards. But you already knew that, right?

It's not that eBooks are evil ... that's silly. What's evil is that the stinking corporate bastards are taking the opportunity as technology changes over to prevent you from actually owning the thing you are paying for--just like video on demand. You can watch the stupid movie you pay for in your home, but you can't own it. The hell with them. I'll buy DVDs as long as they burn them.

[DrDanny]

Hmmm...perhaps I forgot to include the hyperbole/sarcasm emoticon. Of course I realize the fault is the SCBs. In fact, I do purchase ebooks occasionally, and sometimes even when I know they have DRM encoding. I'm contemplating picking up another as I write this.

<SOAPBOX>
Perhaps the thing I hate most about DRM and such is it's indicative of how publishers think of us customers: we're clearly criminals bent on robbing them blind. As if every loaned copy represented a lost sale.

I'm not in favor of people redistributing e-material for profit; that is, and should remain illegal unless the copyright holder waives his right. But to collude with the hardware manufacturers who willingly cripple their products to enable such DRM schemes strikes me as more than evil. For example, by what legal right are DVD "regional restrictions" allowed? Who says I can't buy a legal DVD in Belgium and bring it to the USA to play? Or that I cannot copy it to my computer's hard-drive? Or buy an ebook from Amazon/Kindle for use on my Sony-Ereader? The SCBs. Well, that and the DMCA which makes it a crime to even TRY to do those things.

I applaud Andi Gladwin's approach: "watermark" the downloads in a way that does not restrict my rights in any way, but allows him to trace a copy that turns up clearly in violation of _his_ rights. That seems like the perfect compromise to me: yes, I can, if I wish and have the knowledge, go to the trouble of removing the watermark, but the fact that he trusts me not to do so makes it nearly a certainty that I won't.
</SOAPBOX>

[Richard Kaufman]

New today in the New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/busin ... .html?8dpc

[the Larry]

A $800 tablet will not revolutionize digital reading. There are already pretty cool netbook PCs available for much less. If you think about the Touchbook where you can detach the screen to create a tablet PC then a $800 tablet even from Apple will not be successful beyond a niche market.

And for all those who get excited about multi-touch screens. There is really only one application for which you need multi-touch and that is zooming. Everything else are super specialized applications that very few need.

A much much better concept is for example the XO2 with two screens and a target price of $75. That one will kill any $800 Apple tablet in a heartbeat.

[Bob Cunningham]

A $800 tablet will not revolutionize digital reading. There are already pretty cool netbook PCs available for much less. If you think about the Touchbook where you can detach the screen to create a tablet PC then a $800 tablet even from Apple will not be successful beyond a niche market.

As a business mater, I think you would do well not to bet against Apple - especially if you look at their technology choices for the past 5 years. I imagine many executives at sprint and AT&T were saying the some of the same things about the iPhone before it was launched. This phone odes the same things, but cheaper. Not many people will shell out $300 PLUS a monthly service plan, etc. The iPhone revolutionized the smart phone industry.

As far as this new product, I have used the iPod touch(the iPhone without the phone) as an e-reader. I liked it, but the screen was too small so I moved to the kindle. If the rumors are true I will be one of the first to buy the new product. I suspect that there are many people out there who will find this an VERY attractive device.

As far as the price is concerned, this is just a starting point. In the early 70's a VCR was selling for 4,500 in today's dollars. The price of any popular technology inevitably drops over time.

In any event, it will be fun to see what happens. The future is almost here ;-)

[the Larry]

$800 is in a completely different price range than $300. Anybody from retail will be able to confirm this. There are countless more buyers who will drop $300 for a cool phone than $800 for a cool tablet PC. I am not saying that an Apple tablet would not be successful as a tablet PC. It would be. However, it would never revolutionize digital reading. People would not drop their Kindles and SonyReaders and Nooks to run to the Apple tablet. (Maybe you would but given the numbers of computers you have you are hardly the model customer I am talking about.) It is a different device at $800. And just as the Apple tablet price will slowly drop so will other netbooks and other ebook readers. You have to compare prices now across different alternatives, not future prices of Apples gadget with current prices of alternatives.

[Richard Kaufman]

The higher priced Apple tablet will be quickly copied by PC makers at a much lower price point within a year. Then the prices of all the items will drop. Eventually the tablet, in a more sophisticated version with a longer battery life, will sell for less than an iPhone. It will take a while, but it will happen.

[mrgoat]

$800 is in a completely different price range than $300. Anybody from retail will be able to confirm this. There are countless more buyers who will drop $300 for a cool phone than $800 for a cool tablet PC. I am not saying that an Apple tablet would not be successful as a tablet PC. It would be. However, it would never revolutionize digital reading. People would not drop their Kindles and SonyReaders and Nooks to run to the Apple tablet. (Maybe you would but given the numbers of computers you have you are hardly the model customer I am talking about.) It is a different device at $800. And just as the Apple tablet price will slowly drop so will other netbooks and other ebook readers. You have to compare prices now across different alternatives, not future prices of Apples gadget with current prices of alternatives.

Few mp3 players were in the market. They were clunky and geeky. There wasn't anywhere legal to buy music.

Enter Apple, the ipod and the iTunes music store.

Music industry revolutionised.

Few smart phones. They were rubbish. Ran mobile windows OS which was really bad.

Enter Apple, iPhone and the app store.

Smart phones and mobile devices revolutionised.

Few ebook readers. They are ugly, clunky and not nice. There is no place to buy DRM free ebooks.

Enter apple on Jan 26th...

Say it isn't going to happen if you like, but with a track record like that, I'd put my money on Apple...

[the Larry]

January 26th isn't far way. Let's wait and see. My bet is that a $800 tablet will not revolutionize digital reading. And I would be very happy if I am wrong :-)

[mrgoat]

January 26th isn't far way. Let's wait and see. My bet is that a $800 tablet will not revolutionize digital reading. And I would be very happy if I am wrong :-)

No one is saying it will.

People are saying that a device, coupled with a new retail outlet that publishers and consumers both love will revolutionise digital reading.

I will take your bet though.

Dinner at the Castle if by this time next year the ebook market isn't dramatically different. (Plus airfare).

:)

[Seuss]

If it is indeed the tablet they are announcing, I'd wager it won't be at an $800 pricepoint

[mrgoat]

If it is indeed the tablet they are announcing, I'd wager it won't be at an $800 pricepoint

I'd wager it will be exactly 800.

iPhone launched at $600. A Macbook is $999.

Maybe it will be $799.

:)

[Pete McCabe]

I don't think apple's Tablet is meant to revolutionize digital reading. Remember, there are two kinds of displays, LCD (or OLED etc.) and eink. LCD/OLED are great for color video and lousy for long-term reading. eink is great for long-term reading but can't show color or video (color's coming soon, video is not on the drawing board yet).

Apple is, if predictions hold, readying a tablet computer (with LCD or OLED), like a letter-size iPhone, which will compete with Netbooks. You'll be able to read on itI have an app on my iPhone with 100 classic short stories. It will be a very cool portable video player. But it's not a reading device.

Speaking of which the Skiff ereader was just announced and will premiere 1/7 at CES, same as the Plastic Logic device.

[Eoin O'hare]

I don't think apple's Tablet is meant to revolutionize digital reading. Remember, there are two kinds of displays, LCD (or OLED etc.) and eink. LCD/OLED are great for color video and lousy for long-term reading. eink is great for long-term reading but can't show color or video (color's coming soon, video is not on the drawing board yet).

Apple is, if predictions hold, readying a tablet computer (with LCD or OLED), like a letter-size iPhone, which will compete with Netbooks. You'll be able to read on itI have an app on my iPhone with 100 classic short stories. It will be a very cool portable video player. But it's not a reading device.

It could be like this .

[Jonathan Townsend]

This is still pretty much fussing over how to impliment Yeoman Rand's clipboard from Star Trek.

But what does this techology have to do with delivering content (and perhaps advertisements) to subscribers every month?

How about getting something like this every month? Nothing says 'wow' like an artifact.

[mrgoat]

This is still pretty much fussing over how to impliment Yeoman Rand's clipboard from Star Trek.

But what does this techology have to do with delivering contet (and perhaps advertisements) to subscribers every month?

The clever thing will be the launch of the iTunes Book/Mag Store.

The device, coupled with the easy, affordable way to buy legal content will be the killer. Just like the music and app stores.

[Jonathan Townsend]

Sounds like Yoeman Rand's clipboard is going to be a phone with USB power/data links? That makes sense today - a sort of 4x sized iPhonelike device. Does RSS suffice to push content?

[mrgoat]

Does RSS suffice to push content?

Yes, but no 'normal' people really understand what RSS is. Most people do not use an RSS reader, or even know what one is.

However most people don't know what HTTP is either.

So, the answer is to get RSS integrated into some THING that makes it seamless.

I reckon.